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\documentclass{beamer}
\usepackage{graphics}
\usepackage{color}
\usetheme{Pittsburgh}
\title{How to Lie with Statistics}
\author{Malcolm Farrow \\
(based partly on the book by Darrell Huff)}
   
\date{September 2010}

\begin{document}
\beamertemplateshadingbackground{yellow!25}{magenta!25}

\begin{frame}

\titlepage

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Huff, D., 1954. {\em How to Lie with Statistics}, Penguin.}
\begin{center}

\resizebox{0.5\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{huff.pdf}}

\end{center}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{``Lies, damned lies and statistics''}

\begin{itemize}
\item<2-> \color{blue}{Mark Twain}, \color{black}{1907:}

\color{blue}{``Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: `There are three kinds of lies:} \color{red}{ lies, damned lies and statistics}\color{blue}{'.''}

\item<3-> However it seems that \color{blue}{Disraeli} \color{black}{never actually said this.}

\item<4-> The phrase was used in 1895 in an essay in {\em The National Review} by \color{blue}{Leonard Courtney} 
\color{black}{(1832-1918, a British politician).}

\item<5-> In 1897 \color{blue}{Leonard Courtney} \color{black}{became President of the Royal Statistical Society.}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{penknife.pdf}}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Percentages}
\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{threadneedle.pdf}}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Percentages}

\ldots of what?

\begin{itemize}
\item<2-> Pay: \pounds 1000 per month.
\item<3-> ``Sorry guys. You have to have a 10\% pay cut.'' 
\item<4-> Pay: \pounds 900 per month.
\item<5-> ``Now I can give you a 10\% pay rise.''
\item<6-> Pay: \pounds 990 per month.
\end{itemize}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Percentages}

``A separate opinion poll yesterday suggested that 50\% 
of obese people earn less than the national average income.''

\color{blue}{{\em The Guardian} 3 November 2009}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Percentages}

{\Large ``40\%
rise in swine flu deaths in 48 hours as two more die.''}

``The number of swine flu deaths in Scotland has soared by 40\%
in just 48 hours, after the Scottish Government confirmed that
a further two people died after contracting the virus.

Their deaths take the total swine flu fatalities to 14, \ldots ''

\color{blue}{{\it Glasgow Herald}, 13 October 2009}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Percentages}

``I must write again about the misleading adverts by GMPTE in the papers re the Congestion Charge. In their latest round of propaganda they state there will be a 10 per cent increase in bus services. With 10 councils in Greater Manchester this works out at a one per cent increase per council. If Stockport's bus companies run 200 buses in the morning peak, a one per cent increase will give two extra buses; is that what you want?''

\color{blue}{Letter to {\it Stockport Express}, 26 November 2008}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Percentages}
\begin{itemize}
\item<1-> {\Large ``85\% fat free!''}

\item<2-> {\Large ``15\% fat!''}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Percentages}

{\Large ``Guaranteed minimum return of up to 6\%''}

\hspace{1cm}

\color{blue}{Advert for Stanley Gibbons (Guernsey) Ltd.\ in {\it The Spectator} 15 November 2008}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{The wrong proportions}

``People who have personalised number plates on their cars are most likely to live in Scotland, a survey has found.''

\color{blue}{{\it BBC News Scotland} 11 January 2009}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{The wrong proportions}

\begin{itemize}
\item<2-> ``More than 90\% of cold-sufferers treated with Farrow's Cold Cure had 
relief from symptoms within seven days.''

\item<3-> ``More road accidents occur in clear weather than in foggy weather.''

\item<4-> ``Flying is the safest means of transport.''

\item<5-> The ``Prosecutor's Fallacy.''
\end{itemize}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Misleading Relationships}

\begin{itemize}
\item ``Lurking variables''.

\item Storks and babies.

\item Simpson's Paradox.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Graphs}
\begin{center}
\resizebox{0.6\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{JPMK.pdf}}
\end{center}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Graphs}
\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{Barnetts.pdf}}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Graphs}
\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{RHS.pdf}}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Graphs}
\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{defence.pdf}}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Graphs}
\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{steel.pdf}}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Graphs}

\begin{center}

\resizebox{0.6\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{shadow.pdf}}

\end{center}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Graphs}
\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{shampoo.pdf}}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Graphs}
\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{VODA.pdf}}

\color{blue}{{\it The Sunday Times} 8 February 2004}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Graphs}

\begin{center}
\resizebox{0.8\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{voda1.pdf}}
\end{center}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Graphs}

\begin{center}
\resizebox{0.8\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{voda2.pdf}}
\end{center}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Graphs}

\begin{center}
\resizebox{0.8\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{voda3.pdf}}
\end{center}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Graphs}

\begin{center}
\resizebox{0.8\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{UCAS.pdf}}
\end{center}
\color{blue}{{\em The Times Higher} 23 January 2004}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Graphs}

\begin{center}
\resizebox{0.8\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{ucas1.pdf}}
\end{center}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Graphs}

\begin{center}
\resizebox{0.8\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{ucas2.pdf}}
\end{center}


\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Surveys}

\begin{itemize}
\item<2-> Whom did they ask?
\item<3-> How were they chosen?
\item<4-> How many did they ask?
\item<5-> How many of them answered?
\item<6-> What did they ask?
\item<7-> How did they ask it?
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Surveys: The 1936 US Presidential Election}

\begin{itemize}
\item<1-> {\em Literary Digest}: 
\begin{itemize}
\item Huge sample of telephone subscribers and car owners.
\item Predicted easy win for Landon (Republican).
\end{itemize}

\item<2-> Gallup.
\begin{itemize}
\item Very much smaller {\em random} sample.
\item Predicted Roosevelt (Democrat) win.
\end{itemize}
\item<3-> Roosevelt won.
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Surveys: Questions}

\begin{itemize}
\item<2-> Are they ambiguous?
\item<3-> Are they loaded?
\item<4-> Will the subject understand the question in the way intended?
\item<5-> Will you understand the subject's response?
\end{itemize}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Survey Questions: Examples}

\begin{itemize}
\item<1-> ``Do you feel that Britain should join the European Monetary Union 
immediately or only after a period of three to five years?''

\item<2-> ``Joining the European Monetary Union would have many benefits for Britain 
in terms of jobs and prosperity. Do you believe that Britain should join?''
\item<3-> ``Do you believe that Britain should scrap the pound and hand over control 
of our economy to bureaucrats in Brussels and German bankers?''
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Survey Questions: Examples}
\begin{itemize}
\item ``When driving a car, how often do you break the speed limit? 
\begin{itemize}
\item All the time
\item Very often
\item Fairly often
\item Only sometimes
\item Never''
\end{itemize}

\item ``Which of these magazines do you usually read? \ldots ''
\item ``Which of these magazines have you read in the last month? \ldots ''
\item ``How many times a day do you clean your teeth?''
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Averages}

\begin{itemize}
\item<2-> What kind of average?
\item<3-> Average of what?
\item<4-> Who was counted?
\item<5-> E.g.\ ``average family'': what counts as a ``family''?
\item<6-> Has the population changed?
\item<7-> Hardly anyone is average!
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Averages}
\begin{center}

\resizebox{0.8\textwidth}{!}{\includegraphics{income.pdf}}
\end{center}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Averages}
\begin{tabular}{lr}
Mean income: & \pounds 28720. \\
Median income: & \pounds 24042. \\
Modal income: & around \pounds 14300.
\end{tabular}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
{\large How to talk back to a statistic.}

\begin{itemize}
\item<2-> Who says so?
\item<3-> How do they know?
\item<4-> What's missing?
\item<5-> Did somebody change the subject?
\item<6-> Does it make sense?
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Hope for the future?}
\begin{itemize}
\item Office for National Statistics (ONS)
\item ONS made independent of Government by the \color{red}{Statistics and Registration Service Act, 2007.}
\item National Statistician (Head of ONS)
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}

\end{document}